“Gordian Knot” – (fig.) a difficult problem or situation, after a legend concerning Alexander the Great of Macedon.
Immigration was a key issue for both the Conservatives and Labour during the general election campaign with both parties committed to reducing net annual migration. Two months on what do we know about the new Labour government’s immigration policy, and what changes are likely?
Tidying up loose ends
In the months before the general election, the Conservative government introduced several key changes to the immigration rules. This was prompted by a report from the Office of National Statistics (“ONS”) in November 2023 indicating that net migration for the UK in 2022 had amounted to 745,000 across all visa routes.
Subject to limited exceptions, most students and those entering the UK under the Health & Care Worker visa cannot now be accompanied by their dependants. The minimum salary level for most jobs under the Skilled Worker visa route was increased significantly from 4th April 2024, rising from £26,200 p.a. to £38,700 p.a. At the same time a dispensation allowing employers to pay 20% less than the minimum salary level for jobs on the ‘shortage occupation list’ was also abolished. This lists those jobs which are in short supply in the UK. Lastly, increases were also made to the minimum salary level that British nationals must meet for their partners to receive a Family Visa. With effect from 11th April 2024, it increased from £18,600 p.a. to £29,000 p.a. A further increase to £34,500 p.a. was to be made “at an unspecified point later in 2024” with a subsequent increase to £38,700 p.a. scheduled for “early 2025”, bringing it in line with Skilled Worker visas.
A few hitches
The then Home Secretary, James Cleverly, had estimated that 300,000 fewer people would qualify for a UK visa under the new rules, but said little about the potential overall impact on families, employers, and universities.
The salary increases for Family Visas were criticised as likely to break up families, it being suggested that three-quarters of British nationals would be unable to meet the new requirement if it rose to £38,700 p.a. Many UK nationals may decide that their future lies overseas if they cannot bring their dependants to the UK. Meanwhile recent Home Office figures suggest that between April and August 2024 there were 83% fewer applications for Health & Care visas compared to the same period the previous year, deeply concerning for a sector that has long struggled to recruit. Separately, the Institute of Fiscal Studies reported a 17.1% drop in applications for Student visas in August 2024 compared with the same month last year.
For an immigration policy aimed at bringing the ‘best and the brightest’ to the UK, the changes may have been a deterrent to the very people the government had hoped to attract.
Picking up the threads
Labour had campaigned on an immigration policy aimed at reducing reliance on overseas workers and addressing skills shortages within the UK economy. On taking office the new government was quick to confirm its intention to continue with many of the changes the previous government had made, but in relation to Family Visas it commissioned MAC (The Migration Advisory Committee) to carry out a review of the financial requirements. MAC’s call for evidence on that issue closes in December 2024 and it is likely to be well into next year before it makes any recommendations. In the meantime, the further proposed increases to minimum salary for the route have been put on hold.
In order to reduce the reliance on overseas workers the intention seems to be to ‘upskill’ the UK workforce, identifying key skills shortages and improving access to training and apprenticeships. It means taking a long-term strategic view, one that links immigration and skills and necessitates a ‘joined up’ approach involving MAC, various government departments, the devolved governments, employers and unions alike.
It also looks like the government intends tackling the issue on a sector-by-sector basis. MAC has been asked initially to focus on IT and engineering, two of the sectors that have faced the most problems in recruitment, and which have been reliant on overseas recruitment. As well as looking at the types of roles involved, MAC has also been tasked with identifying the reasons behind this and review the steps that the sectors have taken to respond and adapt to skills shortages. Presumably other sectors facing labour shortages such as hospitality, health and social care, construction, and agriculture/food and drink will be looked at in turn.
A strategic approach combining immigration policy with skills requirements is welcome, if not long overdue, but means it is likely to be some time before recommended changes are implemented across the board. Alexander the Great may have been able to find a quick solution to his dilemma, but if anyone thinks something similar can be done with the even trickier issue of immigration, then (and apologies for the pun) the answer is “a frayed knot” …
If you have any questions on any issues raised in the above article, please contact Steven Dunn